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COVID 19 – How To and How Not To Interpret Data and Statistics

Senthil 2 copyBy Dr. Senthil Nathan, Managing Partner Edu Alliance Ltd, Abu Dhabi  April 13, 2020 Public health experts and economists work with data analysis to understand past trends, make decisions for today and create policies for tomorrow. Covid-19 has created an instinctive awareness for data even among the general public. But how to and how not to use data, statistics and probability in decision and policy making?

As a long time of practitioner of data driven decision making, I have always kept in view the very first words of my professor and thesis advisor Prof. Loren D Lutes at Rice University, Houston in my first class of his famous graduate course on Probability, Statistics and Decision for Engineers: “Probability and Statistics help us quantify our ignorance”.

The disciplines of data analysis, probability and statistics have a deep mathematical underpinning; mastery of these areas require mastery of a wide range of topics in mathematics. It is often tempting for an expert working in areas such as public health, economics, weather forecast and the like to get too carried away with intricate math and elaborate data analysis but miss the forest for the trees in the process.

It is absolutely essential for analysts and statisticians to develop and apply a deep understanding and appreciation of the subject matter under analysis – limitations, assumptions, common-sense observations, vagaries and unusual and specific situations surrounding the collection of data – in order to appropriately compile, analyze and interpret the data for relevant decision and policy making.

Current Covid-19 data set – that is updated daily – may be used to illustrate Prof Lutes’ assertion about quantification of our ignorance and some of the fallacies that may arise out of simplistic interpretation of data sets and statistics. Data from worldometers.info {a} as of April 11, 2020 GMT 16:00 is used in the illustrations below.

Number of cases / new cases: This is not even a laterally (from day to day) comparable statistics even within a country or a region within a country, leave alone comparing the stats between countries – as these stats depend highly on the number of tests done on the preceding few days. For example, India – the second most populous nation on earth – only has a total of 8,000 cases and 875 new cases in the past 24 hours. As compared to many other nations, on the first look – this may look like a highly intriguing but encouraging data for Indians. Even though experts are looking at the rate of growth, days taken to double the number of cases and the like – the real challenge in comparing these numbers for India and for many other countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America is in the number of tests being administered overall.

Number of tests per million: this stat is also attracting significant attention among government leaders and their critics. Number of tests per million population for the most populous countries as given below clearly speak for themselves in anomalies:

Number of confirmed COVID cases reported in these countries seems to be related to this number (inordinately low tests clearly show very low number of cases per million).

In comparison, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has tested 59,967 per million – one of the best in the world – yet only 378 per million cases have been confirmed in the UAE.

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Insights into workings of government machinery and transparency of information are essential for appropriate comparisons between countries. For example, total number of cases in Russia is given as 93 per million; in China as 57 per million; in the USA as 1,529 per million. Having a good understanding of the socio-political systems in the respective countries would help the experts appreciate the validity or otherwise of these stats. It may be more meaningful to compare COVID-19 statistics from open, transparent and democratic nations in Asia, Europe and Americas.

Incompetence and/or lack of resources may explain the reason for low number of tests in some of the other highly populous nations. Accurate reporting of illnesses and deaths due to COVID-19 should also be a major concern to WHO and similar organizations.

Ratio of number of deaths & number of cases to number of tests: Almost 20% of the tests in the USA have resulted in positive cases. In Italy it is 16%; Spain 46%; France 37%; UK 24%. Germany 9%; and South Korea 2%.

All these countries have comparable transparent systems – number of total cases are the highest in the world. So why are these ratios of number of cases to number of tests widely different? Insights from the front line practitioners – as to the practical policies on administering tests – would be important to interpret and appropriately compare such stats. For example, in the USA, in most of the states only those showing strong symptoms are administered these tests. In Germany and South Korea, these standards for administering tests may be very different.

Number of deaths out of the total cases is another ratio that has attracted attention from the public, media and the governments. It is 12.8% for Italy; 12.5% UK; 10.5% France; 10% Spain; and 3.9% USA. It has already been noted that the average age of the population is a factor. Where each country is in the spread of COVID-19 incidents are – in terms of timeline – is also important for death count, as patients move into critical stages in week 2 or later. Hence this ratio for USA cannot yet be compared with that of Italy and Spain.

Underlying Factors of Ignorance: While all of the above issues could be addressed to a reasonably satisfactory extent in data analysis, the fundamental unknowns of Covid-19 – at this stage – are significant enough. This should explain why public health experts in open societies are reluctant to give definitive timelines for recovery, projections of cases, deaths and the like. The virologists, healthcare experts and public health researchers are still working on several unanswered questions {b} : how exactly does the virus spread; Can people become reinfected?; how many cases are actually there in each country?; how deadly is the virus?; is it seasonal?; why children are not getting sick? What role the children play in the spread of this virus?; when will it end? And how? Will it become endemic?

Even the planned human interventions such as the discovery of a successful vaccine; drugs and antibody treatments are currently only gross estimates – which complicate medium term projections.

Conclusion: At present, Covid-19 datasets and statistical / probabilistic projections may seem imprecise and speculative to a lay observer. However, keeping the basic definition of probability and statistics in view – as quantification of our ignorance – this level of impreciseness in projections and estimates is directly proportional to the level of ignorance in the scientific community about this new and deadly public health menace.  More assertive inferences based on statistics can only be made at the risk of neglecting the lack of clarity on the underlying socio-political factors as well as the current gaps in the knowledge of epidemiology of Covid-19.

Sources:

{a}    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

{b}   https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/20/21173472/coronavirus-pandemic-unknowns-questions-seasonality-reinfection-covid-19

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Edu Alliance offers higher education institutions a wide range of consulting services. If you are an organization that wants to know more how Edu-Alliance can best serve you, please contact us at info@edualliancegroup.com.

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Increase Enrollment – Seize The Day

Cheryl King headshotBy Cheryl King Ed.D Edu Alliance Group Advisory Council April 6, 2020 – These are challenging times for colleges and universities even before the COVAD-19 crisis.  Public concern about tuition rates, fewer high school students to fill classrooms, and declining enrollment are just a few of the issues keeping higher education leaders awake at night. I would suggest there is no better time to consider and plan how your institution can serve or better serve adults. The higher education market is changing rapidly, and it’s time for us to change as well.

As a former president of a small private college, and years working in education and workforce development at the state policy level, I understand the pressures of increasing enrollment while dealing with shrinking budgets.  I propose we seize the day in these challenging times by recruiting and enrolling adults.  Millions of adults are unemployed or under-employed across the U.S. because they lack credentials and degrees to compete in the current and future workforce.

Adults without credentials and degrees live in every state.  Many struggle with low-skill, low-wage jobs while trying to take care of their families.  Some tried college, but for several reasons, they didn’t graduate.  Some never thought of going to college because they didn’t graduate from high school.  They are working-age Americans, and their dreams of a better job and a better life for themselves and their kids may not be realized without some form of higher education.

The statistics are staggering.  Twenty-four million working-age adults—12 percent of the U.S. workforce—have not completed high school.  The number of adults earning a GED is now at an all-time high, but the percentage going on to higher education is embarrassingly low.  Some states don’t even record this statistic.   There are also 104 million adults 25 and older who hold a high school diploma only.  Currently, almost a third of U.S. high school graduates do not enroll in college.

There’s more.  An additional 36 million started college but didn’t finish.  In just the past two decades alone, more than 31 million adults left college without receiving a certificate or a degree.  http://www.NewReport:AmericanAdultsCiteWork-RelatedIssuesAsTopReasonforStoppingOutofCollege.

The Lumina Foundation reports that most of the job growth in the U.S. since 2007 has come from jobs requiring some form of post-secondary education.   Jim Clifton, chairman of the Gallup Organization, predicts that by 2025, the United States will need 23 million more degree holders than our colleges and universities will have produced.

It’s an interesting, if not challenging, dichotomy.   Millions of adults need credentials and degrees, yet enrollment is stagnant.  College closures are on the rise due to low enrollment and corresponding financial constraints.  Since 2016, ninety-one nonprofit colleges and universities have closed or merged with other institutions. (Education Dive, 2020). The Chronicle, 2020 Trends Report, states that 40 percent of colleges will struggle in the near future. Some of these are smaller schools that live or die on the margins, holding their breath until enrollment goals are met for the next year or two.

It seems reasonable that some of college closures and mergers could be avoided if they embraced the adult student market.    The definition of a traditional student living in dorms, eating in dining halls, and playing on athletic teams are changing, with 30 percent of adults in the current college market.  But it’s not good enough.  We can do more.    Most of all, let’s understand that times have changed and we must change as well, or we risk closing the doors and selling the campus.

There is hope, however, as more adults are in college today, with large online schools such as Southern New Hampshire or Western Governor’s University and others serving thousands of adults.  But smaller state and private schools can be just as effective with some retooling of their programs and schedules.   According to Washington Monthly, the best colleges for adults tend to be regional public universities, private schools, and community colleges.  Check out the list of top 10 institutions at www.washingtonmonthly.com or the top 25 schools for adults going back to college at www.bestcollegereviews.org.

Colleges and universities have options to consider if they decide to recruit adult students.  Following is a sample of initiatives focused on attracting and serving adults, and programs involving partnerships and collaborations.   There are many others not included here.

  • Adult education programs are available in most communities, helping adults improve basic literacy skills and prepare for the GED or equivalency. Think about providing the students with information about your institution, connecting them with college counselors, and providing materials about how your institution can serve them. Consider offering a scholarship to GED graduates.
  • Websites. Take a fresh look at your institution’s website with the adult student in mind.   Are adult students represented in campus and classroom photos? Does the term adult student appear on your front page?  Do your recruiting and print materials refer to opportunities for adults?
  • Online degrees and flexible scheduling. Herzing University offers Adaptive Learning in the general education curriculum and various nursing programs, both on-campus and online. Adaptive Learning systems leverage data analytics and artificial intelligence to modify the learning experience based on student mastery of course content.  Faculty use the data generated by the student to inform them of the best use of class time. https://smart-classroom.educationtechnologyinsights.com/cxoinsights/why-adaptive-learning-benefits-nontraditional-students-nid-673.html.
  • Credit for prior learning allows students to move through coursework by earning credit for what they already know. Learn more by contacting the Council for Adult Experiential Learning.  CAEL.org.
  • Competency-based Education (CBE) is learning measured in competencies, rather than seat time. Students advance through programs based on mastering all required competencies, and courses or programs feature substantial self-pacing by students. Inside Higher Ed, Jan. 28, 2019 (Slow and Steady for Competency-Based Education). Consider joining the Competency-Based Education at http://www.cbenetwork.org.
  • High-quality advising services at convenient times and locations are vitally important. A recent report from the Lumina Foundation, Strada Education Network, and Gallup reveals that those who stopped out of college say they experienced significantly lower quality career and academic advising compared to their peers who graduated.   NewReport:AmericanAdultsCiteWork-RelatedIssuesasTopReasonforStoppingOutofCollege.

Adult students need access to advisors available 24/7, especially online.   There are companies that provide these types of services.

  • The Integrated Basic Educational Skills and Training (IBEST) model offered through community colleges in Washington state teaches students basic literacy and college-readiness skills along with work readiness skills so students can move through school and into jobs a quickly as possible. acf.hhs.gov or contact wdurden@sbctc.edu.
  • Employer Partnerships can take many forms, such as employer tuition reimbursement, and work and learn options. United Parcel Services and colleges/universities in Louisville, KY collaborate through Metropolitan College, allowing adults to work full-time and receive paid tuition benefits from UPS at various local institutions. Since its inception in 1998, this innovative partnership has helped thousands of students pursue free postsecondary education and on-the-job training while reducing workforce turnover at UPS from over 70% to less than 20%. More than 4,100 individuals have earned over 6,500 certificates, associate, bachelor, and graduate degrees. Source www.courier-journal.com-story-money-companies. 
  • Communities can also play an important role in partnerships. The Tennessee Reconnect program provides adults who do not have an associate or bachelor’s degree free tuition to attend a community or technical college.  Nashville is now working to close these equity gaps through a “sorting in” approach for education beyond high school. With the help of two novel programs— Reconnect Cafés and Reconnect Ambassadors—people can move into jobs with clear paths for growth in position and salary. (Two Unique Programs Are Helping Nashville Adults Go Back To School)

As educational attainment improves, the U.S. skill shortages will decrease, and the economy will increase.  Millions of adults will benefit from better jobs. Institutions will benefit with higher enrollment and financial stability.

But there is more to this story than keeping colleges and universities in business.  One of life’s greatest pleasures is watching graduates receive their diploma with tears of joy, and their family and friends cheering them on from the audience.   The joy and the thrill is the same regardless of age.

Get the ball rolling.  Seize the day.   Higher education attainment changes the lives of graduates and their families—forever.

Open the gates and seize the day

Don’t be afraid and don’t delay

Nothing can break us

No one can make us

Give our rights away

Arise and seize the day.

Seize the Day (Newsies, 1992)

Cheryl King an expert in the field of workforce development has dedicated her career focusing on adult and post secondary education at the state and national levels. She has held a variety of positions in state government and higher education. They include serving in 2006 as VP of External Relations then selected as President of Kentucky Wesleyan College from 2008-11, focusing on long term sustainability through a highly detailed Strategic Plan, that asked the tough questions.  She returned to state government as Senior Policy Advisor for Kentucky Council on Post-secondary Education to develop competency-based education options to help adults to be successful and complete a credential or degree.  Recently she has worked with the Lumina Foundation Strategy Labs program as a State Advisor to help states achieve the Foundation’s goal of 60% of U.S. adults with college degrees, certificates or quality credentials by 2025.