Small rural Colleges and Universities are they viable?

Allen MeadorsBy Allen C. Meadors, Chancellor and Professor Emeritus The University of North Carolina-Pembroke May 4, 2020. The United States has over 5,000 Colleges and Universities ranging from less than a hundred students to over 50,000 students. All institutions of higher education have been re-evaluating their mission and viability, but none more than the 500 or so smaller institutions spread throughout rural America. These institutions are often the lifeblood of their community (and often their region). They often represent one of the most substantial ties to the community/region’s history and culture. They are often the economic engine (jobs, purchases, etc.) that keeps the community and the region alive.

In the last 40 years, many have seen their enrollment decrease, often to the extent that they have had to merge with other higher education entities or close their doors. Like many businesses in America, they cannot continue to be successful in doing things as they always have. So, are small rural Colleges and Universities viable?

There was a comic strip in the 1940-1970’s by Walt Kelly, Jr called Pogo. One of Pogo’s famous quotes was, “We have met the enemy, and he is us.” Rural institutions often underrate themselves. One University with about 2,000 students, said we can’t grow because the large State University is only 45 miles away and that is where everyone wants to go. As we worked with them, we convinced them that they offered something that the much larger campus couldn’t.  They offer a more personal touch campus where you obtain an excellent education and “only” 45 miles from a university of over 40,000. Once they accepted this vision and market it to potential students, they were able to double their enrollment in four years.

Many rural campuses (especially public institutions) often see themselves as commuter campuses. It is a limiting vision to have. Winston

Churchill once said, “A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” Bringing residence students to your campus not only provides growth opportunities but adds diversity that will enrich the commuter student’s educational experience. It will also be good for the local community. Institutions in metropolitan areas often complain that their students do not engage in on-campus opportunities because the local area offers so much distraction (professional sports, major entertaining events, major events brought to the community by industry). The rural institution has the opportunity to be the “destination” not only for their students but for the local community as well.

We always encourage rural campuses to form an active “Town/Gown” committee and support it vigorously. One complaint we often hear is that our community isn’t supportive of our students. At one institution, we had identified several rural institutions that had very positive “Town/Gown” images. We put together bus tours to these communities and had the College’s town businesspeople visit with the town and College individuals in those communities. They came back excited about the business opportunities that a small “College” town could provide that worked for both the academic institution and the town. Over just five years, remarkable changes occurred in the community. Everyone was better off.

We often hear, we are too far away from a major city or we’re not located in a desirable resort area. Again, those are just mental blocks. Your first job is to re­ educate your faculty and staff to the positive that your institution has to offer. One campus with only under 3,000 students (they had lost enrollment over the past ten years) felt exactly that way. We had a forum to discuss the things we did have to offer and why they were a great fit for some students. The campus started to focus on campus life and the fact that it was only 2-3 hours away from two large metro areas, the ocean and beautiful beaches and mountains. Today, students have grown up to not see 2-3 hours as that big of issues. Often it takes nearly that long to drive from one side of a metro area to the other.

Once the focus moved from what they weren’t to what they had to offer, they were able to grow to nearly 8,000 students. The community now has numerous student apartments, restaurants, and a developing classy downtown area. It is moving to be a true “College” town.

Another opportunity that is often overlooked is International students. Small institutions often think that international students wouldn’t want to attend a small rural institution. I am sure that is true for some international students, but many want a campus that will offer them a safe haven during their academic years away from home. One institution located in the lower mid-west was able to increase its international enrollment from less than 250 to nearly 1,000 in three years. The international students were introduced to a University in a small community where they got a lot of individual attention, and the US students got an introduction to students from all over the world. A significant enhancement to their classroom experience.

Another key  factor that is especially critical for small rural institutions relates to a quote from one of Jim Collins’s books, “Good to Great.” It is essential that you “Get the right people on the bus and get the right people in the right seats and get the wrong people off the bus.” It is a positive for all institutions, but small institutions do not have the luxury of often having multiple individuals in various departments/units. Institution leadership often worry about the “get the wrong people off the bus,” and the negative push back from the local community, if these are local individuals. Yes, this will be necessary sometime, but the focus needs to be on “get the right people in the right seats”! Most people want to do a good job, but if we have them in a position that does not fit their skill set, then we have a lose-lose situation. We need to take the time to evaluate an individual’s skill set. If some aren’t good with people, don’t put them or keep them in a position that requires that above other skills. They might do well in a purchasing position that is more research-oriented than handling students’ complaints in the business office.

Another approach recommended by Jim Collins is when addressing a problem “shift the decision from a “what” question (‘what should we do”) into a “who” decision(‘who would be the right person to take responsibility for this”). You will be amazed at how often weak employees in one position shine once they are in an environment where their skill set is a plus.

The Coronavirus (COVID 19) have brought new challenges and opportunities to higher education.  Financially weak institutions may not be able to sustain their financial viability before full recovery occurs.  However, small rural institutions may be able to market their remoteness and small enrollment as safer and more responsive than their larger sister institutions.

So, are small rural Colleges and Universities viable? Absolutely, but each has its history, culture, and opportunities. It is so important to know that no one approach fits all institutions. With small rural institutions, its history and its regional culture play a critical role in not only what you do but how you do it.


Dr. Allen Meadors is an American higher education professor and administrator. He has worked in international higher education as President/CEO of St. John International University in Torino, Italy and served as Executive Director for Higher Education for the Ministry of Higher Education in the United Arab Emirates. He is currently serving as an Associate Editor for the journals “Frontiers in Public Health” and “Frontiers in Education”.

His previous US career included serving as President/Chancellor of three US state universities including Penn State Altoona (February 1994 to June 1999); University of North Carolina-Pembroke (July 1999 to June 2009); and University of Central Arkansas (July 2009 to September 2011).  Prior positions held include Dean of Health, Social and Public Services, Eastern Washington University; Dean of Public Health, University of Oklahoma, Executive Director of the Northwest Arkansas Radiation Therapy Institute; and an executive at Blue Cross/Blue Shield of Kansas.

Allen currently serves on the Edu Alliance Advisory Council and is Associate Editor of Frontiers in Public Health

COVID 19 – How To and How Not To Interpret Data and Statistics

Senthil 2 copyBy Dr. Senthil Nathan, Managing Partner Edu Alliance Ltd, Abu Dhabi  April 13, 2020 Public health experts and economists work with data analysis to understand past trends, make decisions for today and create policies for tomorrow. Covid-19 has created an instinctive awareness for data even among the general public. But how to and how not to use data, statistics and probability in decision and policy making?

As a long time of practitioner of data driven decision making, I have always kept in view the very first words of my professor and thesis advisor Prof. Loren D Lutes at Rice University, Houston in my first class of his famous graduate course on Probability, Statistics and Decision for Engineers: “Probability and Statistics help us quantify our ignorance”.

The disciplines of data analysis, probability and statistics have a deep mathematical underpinning; mastery of these areas require mastery of a wide range of topics in mathematics. It is often tempting for an expert working in areas such as public health, economics, weather forecast and the like to get too carried away with intricate math and elaborate data analysis but miss the forest for the trees in the process.

It is absolutely essential for analysts and statisticians to develop and apply a deep understanding and appreciation of the subject matter under analysis – limitations, assumptions, common-sense observations, vagaries and unusual and specific situations surrounding the collection of data – in order to appropriately compile, analyze and interpret the data for relevant decision and policy making.

Current Covid-19 data set – that is updated daily – may be used to illustrate Prof Lutes’ assertion about quantification of our ignorance and some of the fallacies that may arise out of simplistic interpretation of data sets and statistics. Data from worldometers.info {a} as of April 11, 2020 GMT 16:00 is used in the illustrations below.

Number of cases / new cases: This is not even a laterally (from day to day) comparable statistics even within a country or a region within a country, leave alone comparing the stats between countries – as these stats depend highly on the number of tests done on the preceding few days. For example, India – the second most populous nation on earth – only has a total of 8,000 cases and 875 new cases in the past 24 hours. As compared to many other nations, on the first look – this may look like a highly intriguing but encouraging data for Indians. Even though experts are looking at the rate of growth, days taken to double the number of cases and the like – the real challenge in comparing these numbers for India and for many other countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America is in the number of tests being administered overall.

Number of tests per million: this stat is also attracting significant attention among government leaders and their critics. Number of tests per million population for the most populous countries as given below clearly speak for themselves in anomalies:

Number of confirmed COVID cases reported in these countries seems to be related to this number (inordinately low tests clearly show very low number of cases per million).

In comparison, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has tested 59,967 per million – one of the best in the world – yet only 378 per million cases have been confirmed in the UAE.

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Insights into workings of government machinery and transparency of information are essential for appropriate comparisons between countries. For example, total number of cases in Russia is given as 93 per million; in China as 57 per million; in the USA as 1,529 per million. Having a good understanding of the socio-political systems in the respective countries would help the experts appreciate the validity or otherwise of these stats. It may be more meaningful to compare COVID-19 statistics from open, transparent and democratic nations in Asia, Europe and Americas.

Incompetence and/or lack of resources may explain the reason for low number of tests in some of the other highly populous nations. Accurate reporting of illnesses and deaths due to COVID-19 should also be a major concern to WHO and similar organizations.

Ratio of number of deaths & number of cases to number of tests: Almost 20% of the tests in the USA have resulted in positive cases. In Italy it is 16%; Spain 46%; France 37%; UK 24%. Germany 9%; and South Korea 2%.

All these countries have comparable transparent systems – number of total cases are the highest in the world. So why are these ratios of number of cases to number of tests widely different? Insights from the front line practitioners – as to the practical policies on administering tests – would be important to interpret and appropriately compare such stats. For example, in the USA, in most of the states only those showing strong symptoms are administered these tests. In Germany and South Korea, these standards for administering tests may be very different.

Number of deaths out of the total cases is another ratio that has attracted attention from the public, media and the governments. It is 12.8% for Italy; 12.5% UK; 10.5% France; 10% Spain; and 3.9% USA. It has already been noted that the average age of the population is a factor. Where each country is in the spread of COVID-19 incidents are – in terms of timeline – is also important for death count, as patients move into critical stages in week 2 or later. Hence this ratio for USA cannot yet be compared with that of Italy and Spain.

Underlying Factors of Ignorance: While all of the above issues could be addressed to a reasonably satisfactory extent in data analysis, the fundamental unknowns of Covid-19 – at this stage – are significant enough. This should explain why public health experts in open societies are reluctant to give definitive timelines for recovery, projections of cases, deaths and the like. The virologists, healthcare experts and public health researchers are still working on several unanswered questions {b} : how exactly does the virus spread; Can people become reinfected?; how many cases are actually there in each country?; how deadly is the virus?; is it seasonal?; why children are not getting sick? What role the children play in the spread of this virus?; when will it end? And how? Will it become endemic?

Even the planned human interventions such as the discovery of a successful vaccine; drugs and antibody treatments are currently only gross estimates – which complicate medium term projections.

Conclusion: At present, Covid-19 datasets and statistical / probabilistic projections may seem imprecise and speculative to a lay observer. However, keeping the basic definition of probability and statistics in view – as quantification of our ignorance – this level of impreciseness in projections and estimates is directly proportional to the level of ignorance in the scientific community about this new and deadly public health menace.  More assertive inferences based on statistics can only be made at the risk of neglecting the lack of clarity on the underlying socio-political factors as well as the current gaps in the knowledge of epidemiology of Covid-19.

Sources:

{a}    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

{b}   https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/20/21173472/coronavirus-pandemic-unknowns-questions-seasonality-reinfection-covid-19


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