COVID 19 – How To and How Not To Interpret Data and Statistics

Senthil 2 copyBy Dr. Senthil Nathan, Managing Partner Edu Alliance Ltd, Abu Dhabi  April 13, 2020 Public health experts and economists work with data analysis to understand past trends, make decisions for today and create policies for tomorrow. Covid-19 has created an instinctive awareness for data even among the general public. But how to and how not to use data, statistics and probability in decision and policy making?

As a long time of practitioner of data driven decision making, I have always kept in view the very first words of my professor and thesis advisor Prof. Loren D Lutes at Rice University, Houston in my first class of his famous graduate course on Probability, Statistics and Decision for Engineers: “Probability and Statistics help us quantify our ignorance”.

The disciplines of data analysis, probability and statistics have a deep mathematical underpinning; mastery of these areas require mastery of a wide range of topics in mathematics. It is often tempting for an expert working in areas such as public health, economics, weather forecast and the like to get too carried away with intricate math and elaborate data analysis but miss the forest for the trees in the process.

It is absolutely essential for analysts and statisticians to develop and apply a deep understanding and appreciation of the subject matter under analysis – limitations, assumptions, common-sense observations, vagaries and unusual and specific situations surrounding the collection of data – in order to appropriately compile, analyze and interpret the data for relevant decision and policy making.

Current Covid-19 data set – that is updated daily – may be used to illustrate Prof Lutes’ assertion about quantification of our ignorance and some of the fallacies that may arise out of simplistic interpretation of data sets and statistics. Data from worldometers.info {a} as of April 11, 2020 GMT 16:00 is used in the illustrations below.

Number of cases / new cases: This is not even a laterally (from day to day) comparable statistics even within a country or a region within a country, leave alone comparing the stats between countries – as these stats depend highly on the number of tests done on the preceding few days. For example, India – the second most populous nation on earth – only has a total of 8,000 cases and 875 new cases in the past 24 hours. As compared to many other nations, on the first look – this may look like a highly intriguing but encouraging data for Indians. Even though experts are looking at the rate of growth, days taken to double the number of cases and the like – the real challenge in comparing these numbers for India and for many other countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America is in the number of tests being administered overall.

Number of tests per million: this stat is also attracting significant attention among government leaders and their critics. Number of tests per million population for the most populous countries as given below clearly speak for themselves in anomalies:

Number of confirmed COVID cases reported in these countries seems to be related to this number (inordinately low tests clearly show very low number of cases per million).

In comparison, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has tested 59,967 per million – one of the best in the world – yet only 378 per million cases have been confirmed in the UAE.

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Insights into workings of government machinery and transparency of information are essential for appropriate comparisons between countries. For example, total number of cases in Russia is given as 93 per million; in China as 57 per million; in the USA as 1,529 per million. Having a good understanding of the socio-political systems in the respective countries would help the experts appreciate the validity or otherwise of these stats. It may be more meaningful to compare COVID-19 statistics from open, transparent and democratic nations in Asia, Europe and Americas.

Incompetence and/or lack of resources may explain the reason for low number of tests in some of the other highly populous nations. Accurate reporting of illnesses and deaths due to COVID-19 should also be a major concern to WHO and similar organizations.

Ratio of number of deaths & number of cases to number of tests: Almost 20% of the tests in the USA have resulted in positive cases. In Italy it is 16%; Spain 46%; France 37%; UK 24%. Germany 9%; and South Korea 2%.

All these countries have comparable transparent systems – number of total cases are the highest in the world. So why are these ratios of number of cases to number of tests widely different? Insights from the front line practitioners – as to the practical policies on administering tests – would be important to interpret and appropriately compare such stats. For example, in the USA, in most of the states only those showing strong symptoms are administered these tests. In Germany and South Korea, these standards for administering tests may be very different.

Number of deaths out of the total cases is another ratio that has attracted attention from the public, media and the governments. It is 12.8% for Italy; 12.5% UK; 10.5% France; 10% Spain; and 3.9% USA. It has already been noted that the average age of the population is a factor. Where each country is in the spread of COVID-19 incidents are – in terms of timeline – is also important for death count, as patients move into critical stages in week 2 or later. Hence this ratio for USA cannot yet be compared with that of Italy and Spain.

Underlying Factors of Ignorance: While all of the above issues could be addressed to a reasonably satisfactory extent in data analysis, the fundamental unknowns of Covid-19 – at this stage – are significant enough. This should explain why public health experts in open societies are reluctant to give definitive timelines for recovery, projections of cases, deaths and the like. The virologists, healthcare experts and public health researchers are still working on several unanswered questions {b} : how exactly does the virus spread; Can people become reinfected?; how many cases are actually there in each country?; how deadly is the virus?; is it seasonal?; why children are not getting sick? What role the children play in the spread of this virus?; when will it end? And how? Will it become endemic?

Even the planned human interventions such as the discovery of a successful vaccine; drugs and antibody treatments are currently only gross estimates – which complicate medium term projections.

Conclusion: At present, Covid-19 datasets and statistical / probabilistic projections may seem imprecise and speculative to a lay observer. However, keeping the basic definition of probability and statistics in view – as quantification of our ignorance – this level of impreciseness in projections and estimates is directly proportional to the level of ignorance in the scientific community about this new and deadly public health menace.  More assertive inferences based on statistics can only be made at the risk of neglecting the lack of clarity on the underlying socio-political factors as well as the current gaps in the knowledge of epidemiology of Covid-19.

Sources:

{a}    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

{b}   https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/20/21173472/coronavirus-pandemic-unknowns-questions-seasonality-reinfection-covid-19


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Best Practices — My Trip to Kazakhstan Confirmed Academic Leadership Principles are Global

Jones articleBy Dr. Steve Jones February 24, 2020 – I felt honored and privileged to conduct in August 2019 an interactive workshop on Academic Leadership for vice presidents, deans, department heads, and directors at Kimep University (KU) in Almaty, Kazakhstan. KU is a Western-style English-language institution nestled on the northern slopes of the Tian Shan Mountains in that Central Asian country, which for 62 years (1929-91) operated under Soviet rule.

A former colleague of mine at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, Dr. Timothy Barnett, Ph.D., is KU Provost and General Deputy to the President. He invited me to develop and deliver the workshop, and graciously hosted my week in Kazakhstan, my first visit to the country, 11 time zones east of my Alabama residence. My purpose with this article is to share the following with you:

  • My assumptions about KU
  • The alignment of my impressions with reality
  • Lessons learned and their applicability globally

My Assumptions about Kimep University

From the website: KIMEP is a private, non-profit university offering credit-based, North American-style bachelor’s, master’s, and doctoral degree curricula. Undergraduate enrollment shows as 2,737; graduate at 584. I’ve led US private institutions and a regional state university in that same size range. Dr. Barnett provided insight beyond what the website reported. I came to Almaty expecting to see an institution dealing with many of the same issues confronting small and mid-size private and public colleges and universities in the US. Among the issues I anticipated: enrollment falling short of targets; resultant revenue lagging; the preponderance of first-generation students; little engagement with local/regional business and industry; difficulty in attracting (and retaining) faculty; flagging faculty and staff morale; deferred maintenance backlog.

 Alignment of Assumptions with Reality

I wasn’t far off the mark; I affirmed most of my assumptions. Except for richly endowed, highly selective institutions, the conditions and circumstances I anticipated are generally universal. I won’t elaborate on Kimep University’s particular situation. Allow me instead to expand on what surprised me or proved particularly noteworthy.

Leadership — I should not have been surprised that many of the deans, directors, and chairs see their role as something other than as a leader. Instead, manager or administrator may be a better term for their self-perception. Handling the reporting; convening meetings; operating within the budget. I saw little direct evidence of strategic thinking, inspiration and motivation, aspirational visioning. We discussed those elements at length in our workshop.

Although formal education and experiential learning marked my private industry sector advancement into leadership (preceding my higher education career), such is not common in higher education. For example, a faculty member often enters administrative and leadership realms with little direct leadership training and preparation. We addressed the essence, the fundamentals of managing and leading at Kimep:

  • You manage things; you lead people. Rear Admiral Grace Murray Hopper
  • Never tell people how to do things. Tell them what to do, and they will surprise you with their ingenuity. General George Patton
  • Lead and inspire people. Don’t try to manage and manipulate them. Inventories can be managed, but people must be led. Ross Perot
  • Leadership is the key to 99 percent of all successful efforts. Erskine Bowles
  • Leadership is unlocking people’s potential to become better. Bill Bradley
  • Management is about arranging and telling. Leadership is about nurturing and enhancing. Tom Peters

Too basic? I don’t think so, whether in Kazakhstan or at any college or university.

Advancement and Development – Kazakhstan is still recovering from 62 years under Soviet rule. Generating resources from gifts and donations constitutes a major function of leadership positions here in the US, especially at the executive level. The concept is still foreign to even a Western-style university like Kimep in the former Soviet bloc. I urged senior administration at Kimep to explore whether the time is right to venture into that arena.

Grants and Contracts – During my tenure as Chancellor at The University of Alaska Fairbanks, that state’s Land Grant University, grants and contracts accounted for better than a quarter of our annual operating budget. As with advancement and development, the concept is foreign to Kimep. Once again, I suggested that Kimep executives evaluate the potential for such endeavors.

Community Engagement – I served 2001-2004 as NC State University’s first Vice-Chancellor for Extension, Engagement, and Economic Development. I saw no evidence of such an orientation or function at Kimep University. Almaty, a seemingly vibrant city of approximately two million, served as the country’s capital during the Soviet era. Almaty continues as the major commercial and cultural center of Kazakhstan, as well as its most populous and most cosmopolitan city. Is there an opportunity to further engage with the city and its people in a manner that is reciprocal and meaningful?

Relationships with Business and Industry – Among responsibilities at NC State, my portfolio included Centennial Campus, a 1,700-acre research and engagement campus established to promote intense interaction among the university, business, and industry communities. Kimep University struck me as an enclave onto itself. Again, I urged senior leadership to consider whether now is the time to reach beyond campus.

I made clear to those with whom I interacted that I was not there to provide answers but to pose questions and encourage exploration. Kimep, already acknowledged as Kazakhstan’s top university and a leading institution in Central Asia, aspires to be globally recognized. I hoped our discussion might help lead them to that eventuality.

Lessons Learned and Their Applicability Globally

Allow me to share two conclusions I drew years ago about higher education. First, although not without exception, every university worldwide has essentially the same mission statement. Kimep’s mission: To develop well-educated citizens to improve the quality of life in Kazakhstan, Central Asia, and beyond… through teaching, research, learning, community service, and the advancement of knowledge in… business, social sciences, law, languages, and other fields. I am not disparaging the noble cause, just observing that a modern-day university in Central Asia is aligned with the mission of Fairmont State University, where I served as Interim President:  Fairmont State University is a comprehensive, regional university committed to educating global citizen leaders in an environment distinguished by a commitment to excellence, student success, and transformational impact. No, not verbatim, yet the spirit, intent, and noble causes are consonant.

My second conclusion: every university on the planet (well, at least through my review of many university CEO position announcements) seeks the same leader characteristics and requirements. My point in offering my two conclusions is to suggest that aside from the richly endowed selective universities scattered here and there, the global university community shares a common set of problems, opportunities, and dilemmas. Kimep University is no different.

I stressed to the Kimep workshop participants the following universally applicable academic leadership principles:

  • Test every decision and all endeavors against the Mission, which must be clear, concise, and rock solid… even if similar across most universities
  • Recognize that all we do within any university constitutes a Shared Domain – we are all in this together
  • Operate in Common Cause with positive inclination

Leaders think and talk about the solutions. Followers think and talk about the problems. Brian Tracy

  • Perform in a manner that is Vision-oriented

The very essence of leadership is that you have to have a vision. It’s got to be a vision you articulate clearly and forcefully on every occasion. You can’t blow an uncertain trumpet. Reverend Theodore Hesburgh

The greatest leaders mobilize others by coalescing people around a shared vision. Ken Blanchard

  • Strategic Imperatives need to be stated and pursued.

Leadership is the capacity to translate vision into reality. Warren Bennis

  • All actions should be (must be) Passion-fueled; Purpose-driven

To have long term success as a coach or in any position of leadership, you have to be obsessed in some way. Pat Riley

A great leader’s courage to fulfill his vision comes from passion, not position. John Maxwell

People don’t care how much you know until they know how much you care. Anonymous

  • All actions are best undertaken when they are results-directed
  • And budget-controlled
  • Never remove the Pressure to Perform, underwritten by accountability

I contend that every university, wherever it is located, must follow at least the following seven strategic imperatives. Fidelity to them, doesn’t assure success. Ignoring them does, however, guarantee failure:

  • Nothing is more important than appointing the right people to leadership positions…
  • And preparing, guiding, and enabling them to lead
  • Mission stands as the organizational guiding star… navigate by it
  • There is always room for improvement
  • Surviving and thriving require good decisions and constant action
  • Standing still means falling behind
  • Life and death operate hand-in-hand; not all universities can or will survive

Nature’s laws apply to all universities. In all endeavors, whether among human enterprises or natural ecosystems, there will always be winners and losers. Only the fittest thrive and excel. As much as some might refuse to accept, Nature assures that to the victor goes the spoils.

Summary Reflections

I accepted my Kimep University assignment with trepidation, to no small extent fearing that I could offer little to a university in a country I had never visited. Yet, I found fulfillment, exhilaration, and satisfaction in my week on-site. My experience in US-based academic leadership prepared me well for my Central Asia venture. I hope in retrospect that I offered as much as I learned. I am convinced that Kimep is in good senior executive hands. I urged the senior team to accept and embrace the identified strategic imperatives. I’d welcome a chance to return in 2021 to monitor progress and offer continued assistance.

I learned that Kimep University and the institutions of my immediate experience are far more alike than different. All aspire to survive and thrive. All are constrained or empowered by the same basic imperatives. No other factor in the future equation for sustained success (or ultimate failure) is weighted more heavily than leadership.

As universities here in the US (or globally) deal with turbulent seas, these same leadership principles and strategic imperatives will determine, in large part, whether the institution sinks, frantically treads water, or sails smoothly forward. Some will submerge; others will continue flailing. Those with competent leaders have the best chance of hoisting the sails, catching the breeze, and making it to the desired port. Competent leaders are those who embrace these core principles and pursue strategic imperatives… as they work closely with faculty, staff, students, and stakeholders.


Steven JonesDr.  Steve Jones is the President/CEO of Great Blue Heron in Madison Alabama, which is a consulting firm dedicated to applying nature’s wisdom to living, learning, serving, and leading. Dr. Jones also serves on the Advisory Council of Edu Alliance Group. Steve is also well known as a university administrator and has worked in senior higher education positions for over 30 years.

He has been a President and Chancellor at four institutions, Fairmont State University (Interim), Antioch University New England (Campus President) Urbana University in Ohio (President) and The University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF) (Chancellor).  He is a published author and written in a number of academic publications and journals. He is also a founding board member of the Alabama State Parks Foundation and the Nature Based Leadership Institute.